How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned talks on the near lengthy conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia done," he declared.

However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.

Reduced Influence

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.

The president often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's summit in August yielded little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

In July, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.

The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.

So, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Dylan Roberts
Dylan Roberts

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