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The historic Ashes series may offer a reason to cheer, but this series will also see the Australian team host a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Older Squad Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test team being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is upon them, imposed on this Australian squad in the space of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the team management view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two key bowlers absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of going down early in series and a history of minor injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Unclear

The latter part of the series may witness the main four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this level is no place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that train a-coming, coming around the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.